Yes Virginia… Part 3

The reaction was intensely negative last year to my two posts in August about the inevitable demise of the modern movie house. I wrote then that of the approximately 6,000 movie theaters in the US, 5,000 would disappear within 10 years and only 100 would survive after 15 years. My prediction was largely based on the unstoppable rise of streaming media and the quickening pace of technology. In January 2011, NATO (National Association of Theater Owners) released their stats for 2010 including the fact that, even though box-office returns remained steady at around $10 billion, the number of tickets sold was the lowest since 1996.

2011 isn’t looking much better.

This past weekend’s overall box-office was the lowest since 2008. The period between Thanksgiving and Christmas is traditionally a dead zone and a dumping ground but, still, this is very bad news for movie theaters. It’s certainly not good news for the studios but it’s not the quality – or lack of quality – of their films that’s responsible for the drop in attendance. And the studios have other options for reaching their audience. At the moment, those options are in flux and the will to use them is rather weak in the face of threats by exhibitors who, for the moment, still have some leverage. But sooner than later, the studios will be forced to turn their backs on their exhibition partners as more and more moviegoing drifts to other platforms. It’s certainly possible that events will conspire to move things along even more quickly than I’ve predicted but not more slowly.

What will the numbers be for 2011? My guess is that the industry will see its lowest box-office tally since 2008 (in spite of ever-higher average ticket prices) and a continued drop in attendance. Whatever the results, there’s no stopping this train. Movie theaters as we know them today are going to become a thing of the past within our lifetimes. And that’s not a bad thing – except for exhibitors. For us, it’s going to result in more choices more quickly and more convenience. It will mean the end of sticky floors, obscenely priced snacks and people kicking your seat. It *won’t* mean the end of social movie-going. In fact, we’ll have more choices there as well.

Here’s another prediction: before 2015, NATO will no longer be as forthcoming with their statistics on the number of theaters and screens in the US or box-office and admission numbers.

Lighting a fire for the future!